Advanced fuzzy quantitative risk assessment through the integration of computational fluid dynamics, individual and societal risks
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Date
2026-07-06
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
20 AUGUST 1955 SKIKDA UNIVERSITY
Abstract
This thesis develops an advanced fuzzy Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) methodology
applied to the depropanizer column (T-301) of the GL1K LNG complex in Skikda. Hazardous
scenarios were identified via HAZOP and modeled through Fault Tree/Event Tree Analysis
(GRIF), with basic event frequencies revised using a BORA-based Mamdani fuzzy inference
system in MATLAB across five Risk Influencing Factors. Consequences (pool fire, flash fire,
fireball/BLEVE, VCE) were simulated with PHAST, and individual and societal risks
quantified with SAFETI. Results show the fireball/BLEVE dominates risk, with the site-wide
individual risk contour and FN curve both exceeding acceptability thresholds, supporting
targeted risk-reduction recommendations for GL1K