Uncertainty analysis of industrial fire effects simulation
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Date
2013-01-02
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CHEMICAL ENGINEERING TRANSACTIONS. VOL35.pp 1423-1428
Abstract
In this study, we have studied the relative influence of uncertainty in input parameters of an atmospheric
dispersion model (wind speed, NOx initial concentration and NOx diffusivity coefficient) on the variation of
the outputs. Knowing the uncertainty of a prediction is critical for the decision making process. While the
uncertainties in various elements of the modelling process are being determined, it is also important to
investigate how those uncertainties interact with each other and contribute to the uncertainty in the final
result (e.g. NOx concentration predictions).
Therefore, decision-makers should not base their judgment solely on the mean values, but they should, in
particular, consider the upper bound plume concentration.
In further work, we will include all parameters and also consider the parametric sensitivity analysis of the
numerical dispersion model.